Market Update: Predicting Case Shiller Numbers for April 2024

June 17, 2024

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min read

April Results

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. Yet, the primary US metro benchmarks, the S&P/Case-Shiller (CS) Home Price Indices, will finally update with April numbers on June 25th.
April 2024 is expected to exhibit positive market performance across Case-Shiller markets.
- We anticipate all markets to demonstrate a positive trajectory in April, with Boston leading at 3.0%. Miami and Denver follow at 2.8% and 2.5%, respectively. Washington, DC is predicted to increase by 2.3%, San Francisco by 2.2%, and Chicago by 1.7%. Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and San Diego are projected to grow by 0.9%, 1.4%, and 1.8%, respectively. New York is expected to see a modest increase of 0.7%.
Despite a static Case-Shiller Index since March 2024, the Parcl Labs Price Feed as of June 2024 highlights increases in 9 out of 10 markets. Notable gains were observed in Chicago (5.87%) and Boston (5.03%). Moderate growth occurred in San Diego (4.63%) and New York (4.59%). Conversely, Denver saw minimal growth at 0.91%, and Miami experienced a slight decline of 0.19%.
Our US Price Feed shows the national housing market up 6.4% since the last CS reading in March.
In a fast-moving market, relying on Case-Shiller's updates—which lag by over two months—can be costly. Sign up today for access to real-time real estate pricing.

Timely Real Estate Prices Matter

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. On Tuesday, June 25th at 9:00am EST the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will update with April numbers.

We at Parcl Labs didn’t feel like waiting to see what’s happening in housing markets across the US. We used our real time Parcl Labs data, reconstructed what we could glean from the opaque Case Shiller methodology, and predicted the numbers that will be reported for all Case Shiller 10 metro areas for April. This report analyzes the single-family home market by focusing on repeated sales price trends and dynamics.

April Case Shiller Market Highlights

April 2024 Positive Markets

Boston (3.0%)
Miami (2.8%)
Denver (2.5%)
Washington, DC (2.3%)
San Francisco (2.2%)
San Diego (1.8%)
Chicago (1.7%)
Las Vegas (1.4%)
Los Angeles (0.9%)
New York (0.7%)

What’s happened since the last Case Shiller report?

The Case Shiller Index's latest figures, static since March 2024, are markedly different from the live market changes captured by the Parcl Labs Price Feed as of June 2024. This month, our Parcl Labs Price Feed data indicates growth across most markets, with nine out of ten markets showing an increase in prices.

The most notable increase was observed in Chicago, with a 5.87% rise. Boston exhibited growth, with values increasing by 5.03%. Other markets displayed strong gains, including San Diego (4.63%), New York (4.59%), and San Francisco (4.37%). Moderate growth was evident in Washington, DC (3.65%) and Los Angeles (3.77%). Las Vegas experienced a modest increase of 2.46%, while Denver showed minimal growth at 0.91%. Miami's market experienced a slight decline of 0.19%.

National Numbers

We recently released our US Price Feed, the new benchmark for tracking the US housing market in real time on a daily basis. While our national price feed methodology is different than the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, we benchmarked our median monthly price vs. the Case Shiller monthly index values dating back to 2000, giving us a backtest correlation coefficient of 0.97.

Our new US Price Feed shows the national housing market is up 6.4 percent since the last CS reading in March.

Transparency Matters

Estimate Ranges for April

We carefully track our estimates against published numbers. Outlined below is our error rates for 2024 for the CS-10 metro areas. We continue to refine our approach based on our past performance and increased understanding of the Case Shiller methodology.

Applying these error rates to our April estimates gives us a range of possible values we feel the Case Shiller indices will fall within for each market: