Market Update: Predicting Case Shiller Numbers for February 2024

February Results

• The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. Yet, the primary US metro benchmarks, the S&P/Case-Shiller (CS) Home Price Indices, will finally update with February numbers on April 30th.
• February 2024 is expected to exhibit predominantly positive market performance across Case-Shiller markets.
  • We anticipate most markets to demonstrate a positive trajectory, with San Diego at the forefront, appreciating by 2.1%, followed by Miami and Los Angeles, each growing by 1.8%. Meanwhile, Las Vegas, Denver, and Boston are also expected to see modest increases.
  • Market stability is forecasted for New York, showing no change, while declines are anticipated in Washington, DC (-0.8%) and San Francisco (-0.9%), with Chicago experiencing a slight decrease (-0.2%).
• Despite a static Case-Shiller Index since January 2024, the Parcl Labs Price Feed as of April 2024 highlights increases in all ten markets, with significant appreciation in San Francisco (14.39%), Boston (7.71%), and Washington, DC (6.44%).
• Our new US Price Feed shows the national housing market up  ****5.4% since the last CS reading in December.
• In a fast-moving market, relying on Case-Shiller's updates—which lag by over two months—can be costly. Sign up today for access to real-time real estate pricing.

Timely Real Estate Prices Matter

The need for real time residential real estate data has never been greater. On Tuesday, April 30th at 9:00am EST the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices will update with February numbers.

We at Parcl Labs didn’t feel like waiting to see what’s happening in housing markets across the US. We used our real time Parcl Labs data, reconstructed what we could glean from the opaque Case Shiller methodology, and predicted the numbers that will be reported for all Case Shiller 10 metro areas for February. This report analyzes the single-family home market by focusing on repeated sales price trends and dynamics.

February Case Shiller Market Highlights

February 2024 Positive Markets

• San Diego (2.1%)
• Miami (1.8%)
• Los Angeles (1.8%)
• Las Vegas (1.7%)
• Denver (0.1%)
• Boston (0.1%)

February 2024 Stable Markets

• New York (0.0%)

February 2024 Declining Markets

• San Francisco (-0.9%)
• Washington, DC (-0.8%)
• Chicago (-0.2%)

What’s happened since the last Case Shiller report?

The Case Shiller Index's latest figures, static since January 2024, are markedly different from the live market changes captured by the Parcl Labs Price Feed as of April 2024. This month, our Parcl Labs Price Feed data indicates growth across all markets, with ten out of ten markets showing an appreciation in value.

The most dramatic increase was in San Francisco, soaring to a 14.39% rise, which is a significant lead ahead of the other markets. Washington, DC also saw a substantial increase, with values going up by 6.44%. Other markets followed suit, with Boston, San Diego, and Miami posting robust gains of 7.71%, 5.92%, and 5.14% respectively. Moderate growth was recorded in Los Angeles, Chicago, and Las Vegas, with rises of 4.54%, 4.74%, and 3.37%. New York City's market showed a modest upturn at 1.99%, and Denver experienced the least growth, though still positive, at 1.53%.

National Numbers

We recently released our US Price Feed, the new benchmark for tracking the US housing market in real time on a daily basis. While our national price feed methodology is different than the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, we benchmarked our median monthly price vs. the Case Shiller monthly index values dating back to 2000, giving us a backtest correlation coefficient of 0.97.

• Our new US Price Feed shows the national housing market is up 5.4 percent since the last CS reading in January.

Transparency Matters

Estimate Ranges for February

We carefully track our estimates against published numbers. Outlined below is our error rates for 2024 for the CS-10 metro areas. We continue to refine our approach based on our past performance and increased understanding of the Case Shiller methodology.

Applying these error rates to our February estimates gives us a range of possible values we feel the Case Shiller indices will fall within for each market:

Parcl Labs January Prediction Performance

Transparency and accountability matter. Let’s see how we did in our January predictions:

• 3/10 markets within 10 basis points
• Directionally consistent in 7/10 markets
• 9/10 markets within 1%
• Overall error: 80 basis points (down 13 basis points MoM)