Steel Belt Strength, Sunbelt Stress, Coastal Calm: Housing's Regional Outlook for 2025

Executive Summary

The U.S. housing market's key shift in 2024 was supply outpacing demand. For-sale inventory jumped +15% year-over-year through November while sales fell -7%, creating a current +22% supply-demand gap. In response, sellers have increased price cuts, with 37% of today's listings showing reductions compared to 35% a year ago.

That's the national picture. At the regional level, trends diverged in 2024:

• Florida Led Southeast Correction: Supply-demand gaps topped +70% in Tampa, while nearly 1 in 2 homes took price cuts across major Florida metros. The region's once-hot markets showed how quickly conditions can reverse when affordability challenges and rapidly expanding inventory collide.
• Texas Reset Through Price Discovery: Like Florida, Texas markets sustained supply-demand gaps well above the national average. Austin's path—stabilizing supply growth paired with aggressive price cuts—may preview how other high-growth markets find equilibrium: through motivated sellers discovering clearing prices at lower levels.
• Midwest Defied Gravity: Detroit (-8%), Chicago (-0.6%), and Cleveland (+1%) achieved rare negative or near-zero supply-demand gaps, driven by limited supply and resilient buyer demand. Modest price cuts around 33% of inventory supported steady price growth across the region.
• Coastal Markets Show Enduring Strength: Mature coastal markets like New York (+11%), Boston (+9%), San Francisco (+10%), and Los Angeles (+15%) maintained tight supply-demand gaps and minimal price cuts throughout 2024. Supply constraints and willing buyers shielded these markets from broader turbulence.

Figure 1 – a national map of supply-demand gaps and price cuts – highlights the diverging regional responses to 2024’s market dynamics:

Market signals matter at every level: national, regional, and metro. This report examines supply-demand dynamics across all three to give you the strategic and tactical insights needed for 2025. For ongoing analysis throughout the year, these metrics are available in real-time through the Parcl Labs API.

Background

The U.S. housing market navigated uncertain territory in 2024. While others speculate about what's next, we let the data speak.

Using real-time analytics powered by the Parcl Labs API, this final piece in our year-end series (following our rental and home price analyses) examines the supply-demand dynamics driving regional performance and shaping the path ahead.

Our analysis focuses on two critical metrics that project market direction:

1. Supply-Demand Gaps: Measuring the divergence between YoY changes in inventory levels and sales activity
2. Price Cut Activity: Tracking the percentage of listings taking price reductions

When supply significantly outpaces demand and sellers rush to reduce prices, market corrections often follow. Conversely, markets with tight supply and minimal price cuts often indicate strengthening fundamentals, positioning them for appreciation.

The effectiveness of this framework was proven in 2024. Our early warning on Florida markets—where widening supply-demand gaps and elevated price cuts signaled stress—preceded price declines and earned Wall Street Journal recognition.

Using this framework, we analyzed trends across the top 100 U.S. metros. Here's what we found.

Supply Growth Outpaces Demand Nationwide, but Regional Markets Tell Different Stories

The U.S. housing market closed 2024 with supply growth consistently outpacing demand. By year-end, listings rose roughly +15% year-over-year (YoY). In contrast, sales activity dipped about -7% YoY. This combination produced a national supply-demand gap near +22%—down from about +39% in Q3. Effectively, more sellers competed for fewer buyers compared to the previous year, primarily driven by persistent inventory expansion.

Market-level supply-demand data reinforces this narrative. Among the top 100 U.S. markets, 96 out of 100 currently registered positive supply-demand gaps, with 43 markets surpassing the national +22% benchmark.

Price cut activity provides a window into how sellers are responding to these market conditions. Currently, 37% of U.S. for-sale inventory has registered a price reduction—up from 35% at the same time last year. The breadth of price adjustments mirrors the supply-demand story, with 52 of the top 100 markets exceeding the national benchmark. This combination of widespread supply-demand gaps and accelerating price cuts suggests sellers are increasingly adjusting expectations to match current market realities.

These national trends mask important regional variations in both supply-demand gaps and seller behavior. Let's examine the patterns shaping each region's unique balance—or imbalance—heading into 2025.

Regional Markets Diverge

Southeast Under Stress: Florida Sets the Tone

The Southeast's pandemic-era success story—driven by strong economic growth and sustained in-migration—showed clear signs of strain in 2024. The region's largest markets revealed consistent patterns of expanding supply-demand gaps, with Florida metros leading this trend. Figure 1 captures this stress clearly: Florida markets cluster with both large supply-demand gaps and the highest price cut levels (red dots) in the country.

Florida's markets faced particularly acute pressures as affordability constraints, insurance costs, hurricane impacts, and new condo regulations amplified supply-demand imbalances. By August, Tampa hit a +70% gap—among the highest nationally—before reverting to +24% in November. Orlando and Jacksonville showed similar volatility. In 2024, Orlando's gap started at +63%, peaked mid-year, then settled to +31% by November. Jacksonville followed suit: beginning at +25%, reaching +48% by August, then moderating to +20% in November.

Florida sellers are not just numerous—they're motivated. 44% of Florida's inventory has taken a price cut versus 37% nationally, a gap that has persisted throughout 2024. Price cut activity in the state's major markets mirrors their supply-demand imbalances: nearly half of all listings in Jacksonville (46%), Orlando (45%), and Tampa (45%) have reduced their asking price—each running 7-9 percentage points above the national benchmark and signaling increasingly competitive pricing behavior among sellers.

Beyond Florida, the Southeast's major markets traced similar supply-demand patterns, though with less severe imbalances. Atlanta and Charlotte followed comparable trajectories—both ramped up to peak gaps near +50% in August before moderating to +31% and +26% respectively by year-end. Nashville's trajectory differed, starting higher but showing earlier signs of rebalancing, with its gap declining through the year to settle at +22%.

Seller behavior in these markets, while showing signs of motivation, hasn't reached Florida's intensity. Charlotte leads with 45% of inventory showing price reductions—approaching Florida levels and running 8 percentage points above the national benchmark. Atlanta shows more modest seller adjustments at 39% of inventory with price cuts, while Nashville's 36% sits just below the U.S. average—consistent with its earlier supply-demand rebalancing.

The data signals a clear market correction across the Southeast, with both supply-demand gaps and price cuts pointing to an unwinding of pandemic-era gains. While these gaps have moderated in recent months, suggesting potential stabilization, the key question for 2025 remains: will this adjustment set the stage for a more sustainable market rebound, or is there further to fall?

Trouble in Texas: Austin Hits Reset

Like Florida, Texas rode the pandemic housing boom with surging population and price growth. By 2024, however, this momentum shifted as supply surpluses emerged across major metros. As shown in Figure 1, Texas's major markets display some of the largest supply-demand gaps nationally (larger circles).

Dallas exemplified Texas's market shift in 2024. Starting near balance at +3%, its gap expanded steadily to +51% by November—more than double the national average of +22%. Supply rose +29% while demand fell -22%, indicating sustained listing activity against weakening buyer interest. Houston tracked a similar trajectory. Its gap expanded from +19% in January to +51% in August before moderating to +37% in November, with supply up +21% against -17% demand.

Texas sellers are responding to these conditions, with price cuts running 5 percentage points above the national average. San Antonio and Austin rank #2 and #3 nationally in price reductions, with 51% and 50% of inventory marked down respectively.

Austin, once a pandemic-era standout with significant new construction activity, is showing signs of a market reset. While 50% of inventory carries price cuts, the supply-demand dynamics tell a different story. The gap has stabilized at +36%, with supply growth moderating to +3% YoY from +6% in Q1. This suggests a market finding equilibrium through price discovery rather than inventory expansion—sellers are adjusting through markdowns rather than adding new supply.

As the first major pandemic boomtown to show signs of supply stabilization, Austin's path to balance—through price discovery and supply restraint—may preview how other high-growth markets will reset in 2025.

From Stability to Wild Swings: Coastal West and Mountain West Diverge

The West and Mountain West revealed two different market patterns in 2024: sharp volatility followed by stabilization in interior markets, versus steadier progression along the coast.

Denver and Boise exemplified interior market swings. Denver's gap surged to +76% in August before falling sharply to +26% by November, with demand turning positive (+6%). Boise showed even stronger rebalancing, its gap dropping from +61% in January to 0% by November as supply (+21%) and demand (+21%) found equilibrium.

Price cut activity in these markets tells an equally dramatic story. Denver leads the nation with 52% of inventory showing price reductions—15 percentage points above the national benchmark. While Boise's supply-demand gap has normalized, 42% of its inventory still carries price cuts, suggesting sellers remain eager to capture returning buyers.

In contrast, West Coast markets made measured transitions from slight deficits to moderate supply-demand gaps: San Francisco (-7% to +10%), Los Angeles (-9% to +15%), San Diego (-6% to +34%), and Seattle (-13% to +6%).

Figure 1 illustrates this stability—coastal California and Seattle show notably smaller gaps (smaller circles) and lower price cuts (blue dots) than inland markets. These controlled shifts reflect both rising national inventory and the region's structural supply constraints, helping coastal markets avoid the dramatic swings seen inland.

Core West Coast markets have maintained price cut levels 5-8 percentage points below the national average throughout 2024, suggesting more measured seller responses to market conditions.

Northeast Holds Steady

Like their West Coast counterparts, the Northeast's mature markets emerged as a pocket of relative stability in 2024. While supply outpaced demand nationally, the region's largest metros maintained some of the tightest supply-demand gaps in the country. As Figure 1 shows, Northeast markets stand out with both minimal gaps (smaller circles) and the lowest price cut levels (darkest blue dots) nationwide.

Boston, MA ended the year around +9% YoY, staying remarkably stable throughout 2024 with its gap never exceeding +14%. New York, NY followed a similar pattern, briefly touching +17% mid-year before settling near +11%. Philadelphia, PA charted a more dramatic improvement, dropping steadily from +49% in January to roughly +1% by year-end. Secondary markets like Hartford, CT and Rochester, NY showed similar restraint, ending at +3% and +15% respectively.

Price cut trends underscore the region's steadiness. New York and Hartford lead with just 23% of inventory marked down—nearly 14 points below the national rate. Boston (29%) and Philadelphia (34%) also show markedly less seller pressure compared to the U.S. average of 37%. This limited discounting reflects the region's fundamental supply-demand tightness.

Despite ongoing affordability challenges, the Northeast continues to operate closer to historical norms—avoiding the dramatic shifts seen elsewhere. Barring major economic disruption, this stability—anchored by limited inventory and steady demand—appears set to persist through 2025.

Against the Grain: Midwest Tightens, Defying National Trends

While other regions wrestled with persistent supply surpluses, the Midwest emerged from 2024 as the nation's tightest housing market. Against a national gap of +22%, the region's largest markets demonstrated remarkable supply-demand YoY alignment. Figure 1 captures this strength clearly—Midwest metros display consistently small supply-demand gaps (smallest circles on the map).

In a rare dynamic among U.S. markets on 2024, several Midwest metros actually saw supply contract relative to demand. Detroit led with the country's strongest seller's conditions, posting a -8% gap through November (supply -9%, demand -1%), indicating more buyer competition than available homes. Chicago (-0.6% gap) and Cleveland (+1% gap) showed similar strength, with both supply and demand growing in the low single digits. Columbus achieved near-perfect equilibrium at +0.4%, with supply (+13%) closely matching demand (+13%), while Milwaukee maintained a modest +6% gap.

Price cut patterns align with these tight market conditions. Chicago (33% of inventory with price cuts), Detroit (34%), and Milwaukee (33%) maintained price reductions consistently below the national average of 37% throughout 2024. Even in markets showing moderate supply-demand gaps like Minneapolis and Columbus, price cuts remained near the national benchmark.

The data points to clear market dynamics: negative supply-demand gaps indicate tightness, while moderate price adjustments suggest equilibrium pricing at elevated levels. Together, these metrics help explain the Midwest's leadership in home price appreciation through 2024. As the region enters 2025, its combination of relative affordability and constrained supply creates a strong foundation for sustained price growth.

Market-Level Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

National trends can hide regional patterns. Regional patterns can overlook market-level dynamics. Real estate markets behave uniquely at a local level and require precise data to decode. Our goal is to provide you with granular, actionable data to understand your market’s position this year.

Here’s how supply-demand trends and price cuts unfolded across 32 select top U.S. MSAs.

Atlanta: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +31% divergence in November, reaching its widest point at +50% in August before moderating through the fall. Currently, +22% YoY inventory growth contrasts with -9% YoY sales activity.

Atlanta's price reduction rate stands at 39% of inventory—slightly above the national benchmark of 38%. The market has tracked closely with national price cut trends through 2024, showing similar seasonal patterns but maintaining marginally higher seller motivation throughout the year.

Boston: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +9% divergence in November, maintaining one of the tightest balances among major metros throughout 2024. The gap never exceeded +14% (August) and bottomed at +5% in February, with current conditions showing +17% YoY inventory growth against +8% YoY sales activity.

Boston's price reduction rate stands at 29% of inventory—significantly below the national benchmark of 38%. The market has consistently demonstrated lower seller motivation than national averages through 2024, reflecting the region's sustained supply-demand balance and strong buyer demand.

Charlotte: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +26% divergence in November, peaking at +52% in August before moderating through the fall. Currently, +24% YoY inventory growth contrasts with -2% YoY sales activity, indicating persistent market imbalance despite recent improvement.

Charlotte's price reduction rate stands at 45% of inventory—notably above the national benchmark of 38%. The market has maintained elevated price cut activity throughout 2024, with the share of reduced listings running 7 percentage points above the national average, suggesting heightened seller motivation to capture buyers in a shifting market.

Chicago: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a rare negative gap of -0.6% in November, one of only a handful of major metros achieving supply-demand balance in 2024. The market has demonstrated remarkable stability, with the gap ranging from -13% in February to a modest +11% in October. Current conditions show +4% YoY demand growth slightly outpacing +4% YoY inventory growth

Chicago's price reduction rate stands at 33% of inventory—meaningfully below the national benchmark of 38%. The market's balanced supply-demand dynamics appear to be reflected in seller behavior, with price cut activity remaining subdued even during periods of slightly positive gaps, suggesting a well-calibrated market where prices are generally aligned with buyer expectations.

Cleveland: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a remarkably tight +1% YoY gap in November, positioning Cleveland among the most balanced major markets in late 2024. The market experienced wider fluctuations earlier in the year, with the YoY gap reaching +26% in August before steadily improving through the fall. Current conditions show nearly matched YoY changes, with inventory growth of +3% only slightly outpacing sales growth of +2%.

Cleveland's price reduction rate stands at 35% of inventory—modestly below the national benchmark of 38%. Notably, even during the peak supply-demand gap in August, price cuts remained relatively contained at 28%, suggesting seller confidence in the market's fundamentals despite temporary imbalances. This measured approach to price reductions has persisted as the market achieved near-perfect YoY supply-demand alignment by year-end.

Dallas: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a substantial +51% YoY gap in November, reflecting one of the market's most significant imbalances nationwide. The gap expanded dramatically from just +3% in January, peaking at +55% in August before moderating slightly. Current conditions reveal a stark contrast: +29% YoY inventory growth against -22% YoY sales decline, highlighting market pressures.

Dallas's price reduction rate stands at 44% of inventory—well above the national benchmark of 38%. Price cut activity has closely tracked the widening supply-demand gap throughout 2024, reaching its highest level of 47% during the peak August gap, suggesting sellers have responded directly to mounting inventory pressures with increasingly aggressive price reductions. Both metrics point to a market under stress as the year closes.

Denver: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +26% YoY gap in November, representing a significant improvement from the market's dramatic +76% peak in August. The turnaround in the latter half of 2024 is notable: current conditions show +32% YoY inventory growth now paired with positive YoY sales growth of +6%, a marked shift from the -10% YoY sales decline during the summer peak.

Denver's price reduction rate stands at 52% of inventory—the highest among major metros and 14 percentage points above the national benchmark of 38%. Price cuts have intensified from the 47% level seen during August's peak gap. This escalation in price reduction activity, even as market balance improves, points to sustained pressure on sellers who may be competing more aggressively for the market's returning buyers.

Detroit: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a -8% YoY gap in November, marking Detroit as one of the few major metros with a negative supply-demand gap. Current readings show -9% YoY inventory decline against a modest -1% YoY sales dip, indicating a tightening market.

Detroit's price reduction rate stands at 34% of inventory— below the national benchmark of 38%. Interestingly, even during April's peak supply-demand gap, price cuts remained subdued at 21%, suggesting underlying market strength. The relatively low price cut activity, combined with contracting YoY inventory levels, points to a market where sellers maintain pricing power despite broader national trends toward buyer advantage.

Houston: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +37% YoY gap in November, an improvement from the market's +51% peak in August but still well above the national average of +22%. The gap has widened considerably from +9% in February, with current conditions showing +21% YoY inventory growth against -17% YoY sales decline.

Houston's price reduction rate stands at 39% of inventory—slightly above the national benchmark of 38%. Price cut activity has remained stable even as the supply-demand gap fluctuated, hovering around 39% both during August's peak gap and in the current period. This consistency in price reduction levels, despite improving supply-demand metrics, suggests sellers remain cautious about market conditions even as fundamental imbalances begin to moderate.

Jacksonville: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +20% YoY gap in November, a significant improvement from the market's +48% peak in August and now slightly below the national average of +22%. The market has demonstrated steady improvement through the fall, with current conditions showing +13% YoY inventory growth against -7% YoY sales decline.

Jacksonville's price reduction rate stands at 46% of inventory—8 percentage points above the national benchmark of 38%. Notably, price cut activity has remained stubbornly elevated even as the supply-demand gap improved, moderating only slightly from 47% during August's peak gap. This high level of price reductions, despite improving market balance, suggests sellers continue aggressive pricing strategies in response to Florida's broader market challenges.

Las Vegas: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +31% YoY gap in November, moderating from the market's +53% peak in September but still above the national average of +22%. The market has shown volatility in 2024, swinging from a -24% gap in February to its September peak. Current conditions reveal +39% YoY inventory growth paired with +8% YoY sales growth, indicating returning buyer activity with elevated supply levels.

Las Vegas's price reduction rate stands at 38% of inventory—matching the national benchmark. Interestingly, price cuts have increased from 35% during September's peak supply-demand gap, suggesting heightened seller competition even as market fundamentals improve.

Los Angeles: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +15% YoY gap in November, moderating from the market's +30% peak in September and remaining below the national average of +22%. The market has maintained relatively balanced conditions throughout 2024, moving from a slight -9% gap in February to its current state. Current conditions show +23% YoY inventory growth against +8% YoY sales growth, indicating healthy buyer activity despite rising supply.

Los Angeles's price reduction rate stands at 29% of inventory—significantly below the national benchmark of 38%. Price cut activity has remained subdued even during September's peak gap when only 27% of inventory showed reductions. This consistently low level of price cuts, paired with positive YoY sales growth, suggests sustained market stability despite inventory expansion.

Miami: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +28% YoY gap in November, a significant improvement from the market's +59% peak in August but still above the national average of +22%. The market has maintained consistently elevated gaps throughout 2024, never falling below +25%. Current conditions show +20% YoY inventory growth against -8% YoY sales decline.

Miami's price reduction rate stands at 39% of inventory—just marginally above the national benchmark of 38% and notably lower than other major Florida markets where price cuts often exceed 45%. This relative stability in price reduction activity, converging with national norms even as supply-demand gaps remain elevated, sets Miami apart from its state peers and suggests greater market resilience. While other Florida metros continue to see aggressive price adjustments, Miami sellers appear to be maintaining greater pricing power.

Milwaukee: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a tight +6% YoY gap in November, significantly below the national average of +22% and reflecting the broader Midwest's market strength. The market has maintained remarkable stability throughout 2024, with the gap never exceeding +16% (January) and even briefly turning negative at -4% in April. Current conditions show modest but positive growth on both sides: +9% YoY inventory growth against +3% YoY sales growth.

Milwaukee's price reduction rate stands at 33% of inventory—5 percentage points below the national benchmark of 38%. Price cut activity has increased modestly from 26% during January's peak gap, but remains contained, reflecting the market's sustained supply-demand balance. This combination of moderate price adjustments and positive growth in both supply and demand suggests a healthy market functioning close to equilibrium.

Minneapolis: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +22% YoY gap in November, matching the national average and marking a significant improvement from the market's +51% peak in August. The market has shown considerable volatility in 2024, swinging from a slight -4% gap in February to its summer peak before moderating. Current conditions show +26% YoY inventory growth against +5% YoY sales growth, indicating returning buyer activity.

Minneapolis's price reduction rate stands at 40% of inventory—slightly above the national benchmark of 38%.

Nashville: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +22% YoY gap in November, matching the national average and holding relatively steady from October's +29% peak. Current conditions show +28% YoY inventory growth against +6% YoY sales growth, indicating sustained buyer activity matched with rising supply levels.

Nashville's price reduction rate stands at 36% of inventory—slightly below the national benchmark of 38%. Notably, price cuts have increased from 30% during October's peak gap, yet remain more moderate than many Southeast peers. This combination of positive sales growth and contained price reduction activity, despite inventory expansion, suggests the market is managing its supply growth without resorting to aggressive price adjustments.

New Orleans: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +11% YoY gap in November, considerably below the national average of +22% and marking the market's tightest point of 2024. The improvement from January's dramatic +78% peak has been substantial, with current conditions showing -3% YoY inventory decline against -14% YoY sales decline, indicating a market where both supply and transaction activity have contracted.

New Orleans's price reduction rate stands at 42% of inventory—4 percentage points above the national benchmark of 38%. Despite the significant improvement in supply-demand balance, price cuts have actually increased from 39% during January's peak gap, suggesting sellers continue to face challenges even as market-level metrics improve.

New York: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +11% YoY gap in November, below the national average of +22% and showing characteristic Northeast stability. The market has maintained tight conditions throughout 2024, with the gap never exceeding +17% in August. Current conditions show modest +4% YoY inventory growth against -8% YoY sales decline, reflecting the market's structural supply constraints.

New York's price reduction rate stands at 23% of inventory—15 percentage points below the national benchmark of 38% and among the lowest of major metros. Price cut activity has remained remarkably consistent through 2024's market shifts, holding steady around 23% even during August's peak gap. This sustained low level of price reductions, paired with contained inventory growth, suggests persistent market strength despite moderating sales activity.

Orlando: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +31% YoY gap in November, well above the national average of +22% but markedly improved from the market's +74% peak in August. The gap stayed consistently elevated through 2024, never falling below +30%. Current conditions show +27% YoY inventory growth against -4% YoY sales decline.

Orlando's price reduction rate stands at 45% of inventory—7 percentage points above the national benchmark of 38%. Price cuts have edged higher from 44% during August's peak gap, even as supply-demand metrics improved. This combination of elevated price cuts and above-average supply-demand gaps places Orlando among Florida's most challenging markets.

Philadelphia: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a remarkably tight +1% YoY gap in November, well below the national average of +22% and marking the market's most balanced point of 2024. The improvement from January's +49% peak has been dramatic, with current conditions showing balanced growth: +8% YoY inventory gains matched by +7% YoY sales growth.

Philadelphia's price reduction rate stands at 34% of inventory—4 percentage points below the national benchmark of 38%. Price cuts have increased modestly from 30% during January's peak gap, but remain contained compared to national trends. This combination of balanced supply-demand dynamics and moderate price reduction activity reflects the broader Northeast region's stability.

Phoenix: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +19% YoY gap in November, slightly below the national average of +22% and markedly improved from the market's +54% peak in August. The market has shown significant swings in 2024, moving from a balanced gap in January to its summer peak. Current conditions show +23% YoY inventory growth against +4% YoY sales growth, indicating returning buyer activity.

Phoenix's price reduction rate stands at 45% of inventory—7 percentage points above the national benchmark of 38%. Price cuts have increased from 43% during August's peak gap, even as supply-demand metrics improved. This continued high level of price reductions, despite improving fundamentals, suggests a market still working to find sustainable price levels after significant pandemic-era appreciation.

Pittsburgh: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +22% YoY gap in November, matching the national average and improving from the market's +31% peak in January. The gap has remained relatively stable through 2024, with a low of +17% in September. Current conditions show +13% YoY inventory growth against -9% YoY sales decline.

Pittsburgh's price reduction rate stands at 43% of inventory—5 percentage points above the national benchmark of 38%. Price cuts have increased notably from 37% during January's peak gap, suggesting growing seller motivation even as market-level metrics stabilized. While the market shows supply-demand metrics in line with national averages, the rising share of reduced listings points to increasing competition among sellers.

Portland: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +7% YoY gap in November, well below the national average of +22% and marking the market's tightest point of 2024. The improvement from August's +42% peak has been substantial. Current conditions show +18% YoY inventory growth outpaced by +11% YoY sales growth—one of the strongest demand rebounds among major metros.

Portland's price reduction rate stands at 46% of inventory—8 percentage points above the national benchmark of 38%. Price cuts have increased from 40% during August's peak gap, even as the supply-demand balance improved significantly.

Providence: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +24% YoY gap in November, slightly above the national average of +22% but substantially improved from the market's +47% peak in January. The gap has fluctuated throughout 2024, reaching its tightest point at +8% in April. Current conditions show +24% YoY inventory growth against flat YoY sales activity.

Providence's price reduction rate stands at 26% of inventory—12 percentage points below the national benchmark of 38%. Price cuts have increased modestly from 20% during January's peak gap, but remain among the lowest of major metros, reflecting the Northeast region's tight market conditions.

Raleigh: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +24% YoY gap in November, slightly above the national average of +22% and improving from the market's +41% peak in September. The gap has widened significantly from near-balance in March. Current conditions show +14% YoY inventory growth against -11% YoY sales decline.

Raleigh's price reduction rate stands at 39% of inventory—just above the national benchmark of 38%. Price cuts have held steady near 40% since the September peak gap, tracking closely with national averages throughout 2024. This alignment in both supply-demand gap and price cut activity suggests a market moving in sync with broader national trends.

San Antonio: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +29% YoY gap in November, above the national average of +22% but improving from the market's +39% peak in August. Like other Texas metros, the gap has widened significantly from +3% in February. Current conditions show modest +5% YoY inventory growth against sharp -24% YoY sales decline—one of the steepest demand drops among major metros.

San Antonio's price reduction rate stands at 51% of inventory—13 percentage points above the national benchmark of 38% and second-highest among major metros. Price cuts have increased slightly from 50% during August's peak gap. This combination of elevated price reductions and weak demand aligns with broader pressures seen across Texas markets, where more sellers are actively competing for a shrinking buyer pool.

San Diego: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +34% YoY gap in November, well above the national average of +22% but significantly improved from the market's +67% peak in August. The market has shifted markedly from a -6% gap in January. Current conditions show +38% YoY inventory growth against +4% YoY sales growth, indicating returning buyer activity despite elevated supply levels.

San Diego's price reduction rate stands at 35% of inventory—3 percentage points below the national benchmark of 38%. Price cuts have increased modestly from 32% during August's peak gap, showing relative restraint in seller behavior despite the substantial supply expansion. This measured approach to price reductions, coupled with positive sales growth, suggests underlying market stability even as inventory levels adjust.

San Francisco: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +10% YoY gap in November, well below the national average of +22% and marking significant improvement from the market's +40% peak in August. The market has recovered from a -9% gap in February, with current conditions showing +17% YoY inventory growth against +7% YoY sales growth.

San Francisco's price reduction rate stands at 32% of inventory—6 percentage points below the national benchmark of 38%. Price cuts have increased from 27% during August's peak gap but remain moderate compared to national trends. Like other coastal California markets, the combination of low price cuts and positive sales growth suggests a market finding balance despite higher inventory levels.

San Jose: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +9% YoY gap in November, well below the national average of +22% and markedly improved from the market's +55% peak in August. The market has rebounded strongly from a -19% gap in March. Current conditions show +26% YoY inventory growth against robust +17% YoY sales growth—one of the strongest demand readings nationwide.

San Jose's price reduction rate stands at 26% of inventory—12 percentage points below the national benchmark of 38%. Price cuts have increased modestly from 23% during August's peak gap but remain among the lowest of major metros.

Seattle: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +6% YoY gap in November, well below the national average of +22% and marking a dramatic improvement from the market's +52% peak in August. The market has shifted from a -16% gap in February, with current conditions showing +22% YoY inventory growth against strong +16% YoY sales growth.

Seattle's price reduction rate stands at 39% of inventory—slightly above the national benchmark of 38%. Price cuts have increased from 35% during August's peak gap, even as supply-demand fundamentals improved significantly.

Tampa: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +24% YoY gap in November, slightly above the national average of +22% and marking substantial improvement from the market's +70% peak in August—one of the highest readings nationwide. The market has shown extreme volatility in 2024, with current conditions showing +10% YoY inventory growth against -14% YoY sales decline.

Tampa's price reduction rate stands at 45% of inventory—7 percentage points above the national benchmark of 38% and down from 51% during August's peak gap. This elevated but moderating level of price cuts aligns with broader Florida market trends, as sellers adjust to shifting conditions amidst insurance cost pressures and changing demand dynamics.

Washington DC: Supply-Demand and Price Cut Analysis

Supply-demand dynamics show a +13% YoY gap in November, below the national average of +22% and improving from the market's +32% peak in August.

Washington DC's price reduction rate stands at 31% of inventory—7 percentage points below the national benchmark of 38%. Price cuts have increased modestly from 26% during August's peak gap but remain well contained.

Methodology (Appendix)

Methodology is completely open source. Review, run it, and build on it here.

Data Source and Market Coverage

• Primary data source: Parcl Labs API
• Property types: All residential properties, including single-family homes, condos, townhouses.
• Geographic scope: 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas by population

Supply-Demand Divergence Analysis

1. Calculate monthly year-over-year (YoY) percentage change for:
   • Supply: Total for-sale inventory
   • Demand: Number of completed sales transactions
2. Apply 3-month moving average to smooth short-term fluctuations
3. Compute supply-demand change differential

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Price Cut Activity Filtering

1. Calculate percentage of inventory with price cuts for each market
2. Apply 3-month moving average to price cut percentages
3. Compare each market's moving average to the national benchmark